Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift

6 June 2019

Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Jasper Snoek

UQCV

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Papers citing "Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift"

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Title
Uncertainty Prediction for Deep Sequential Regression Using Meta Models Jirí Navrátil Matthew Arnold Benjamin Elder BDL UQCV 11 6 0 02 Jul 2020
FathomNet: An underwater image training database for ocean exploration and discovery O. Boulais Benjamin Woodward B. Schlining L. Lundsten K. Barnard K. L. Bell K. Katija 19 14 0 30 Jun 2020
Unsupervised Calibration under Covariate Shift Anusri Pampari Stefano Ermon 24 17 0 29 Jun 2020
Improving Calibration through the Relationship with Adversarial Robustness Yao Qin Xuezhi Wang Alex Beutel Ed H. Chi AAML 40 25 0 29 Jun 2020
Discriminative Jackknife: Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Learning via Higher-Order Influence Functions Ahmed Alaa M. Schaar UD UQCV BDL TDI 24 53 0 29 Jun 2020
A Comparison of Uncertainty Estimation Approaches in Deep Learning Components for Autonomous Vehicle Applications F. Arnez H. Espinoza A. Radermacher Franccois Terrier UQCV 30 29 0 26 Jun 2020
Unlabelled Data Improves Bayesian Uncertainty Calibration under Covariate Shift Alex J. Chan Ahmed Alaa Zhaozhi Qian M. Schaar UQCV BDL OOD 28 38 0 26 Jun 2020
Can Autonomous Vehicles Identify, Recover From, and Adapt to Distribution Shifts? Angelos Filos P. Tigas R. McAllister Nicholas Rhinehart Sergey Levine Y. Gal 22 185 0 26 Jun 2020
Hyperparameter Ensembles for Robustness and Uncertainty Quantification F. Wenzel Jasper Snoek Dustin Tran Rodolphe Jenatton UQCV 33 204 0 24 Jun 2020
Continual Learning in Recurrent Neural Networks Benjamin Ehret Christian Henning Maria R. Cervera Alexander Meulemans J. Oswald Benjamin Grewe CLL 26 9 0 22 Jun 2020
Frequentist Uncertainty in Recurrent Neural Networks via Blockwise Influence Functions Ahmed Alaa M. Schaar UQCV BDL 14 22 0 20 Jun 2020
From Predictions to Decisions: Using Lookahead Regularization Nir Rosenfeld Sophie Hilgard S. Ravindranath David C. Parkes 22 20 0 20 Jun 2020
Regression Prior Networks A. Malinin Sergey Chervontsev Ivan Provilkov Mark Gales BDL UQCV 37 36 0 20 Jun 2020
Paying more attention to snapshots of Iterative Pruning: Improving Model Compression via Ensemble Distillation Duong H. Le Vo Trung Nhan N. Thoai VLM 25 7 0 20 Jun 2020
Evaluating Prediction-Time Batch Normalization for Robustness under Covariate Shift Zachary Nado Shreyas Padhy D. Sculley Alexander DÁmour Balaji Lakshminarayanan Jasper Snoek OOD AI4TS 34 240 0 19 Jun 2020
Uncertainty in Gradient Boosting via Ensembles Aleksei Ustimenko Liudmila Prokhorenkova A. Malinin UQCV 28 94 0 18 Jun 2020
Selective Question Answering under Domain Shift Amita Kamath Robin Jia Percy Liang OOD 19 206 0 16 Jun 2020
Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts Bertrand Charpentier Daniel Zügner Stephan Günnemann UQCV UD EDL BDL 29 169 0 16 Jun 2020
Calibrating Deep Neural Network Classifiers on Out-of-Distribution Datasets Zhihui Shao Jianyi Yang Shaolei Ren OODD 35 11 0 16 Jun 2020
Neural Ensemble Search for Uncertainty Estimation and Dataset Shift Sheheryar Zaidi Arber Zela T. Elsken Chris Holmes Frank Hutter Yee Whye Teh OOD UQCV 18 71 0 15 Jun 2020
Depth Uncertainty in Neural Networks Javier Antorán J. Allingham José Miguel Hernández-Lobato UQCV OOD BDL 43 100 0 15 Jun 2020
Detecting unusual input to neural networks Jörg Martin Clemens Elster AAML 17 7 0 15 Jun 2020
Mean-Field Approximation to Gaussian-Softmax Integral with Application to Uncertainty Estimation Zhiyun Lu Eugene Ie Fei Sha UQCV BDL 20 14 0 13 Jun 2020
A benchmark study on reliable molecular supervised learning via Bayesian learning Doyeong Hwang Grace Lee Hanseok Jo Seyoul Yoon Seongok Ryu 32 9 0 12 Jun 2020
Revisiting Explicit Regularization in Neural Networks for Well-Calibrated Predictive Uncertainty Taejong Joo U. Chung BDL UQCV 22 0 0 11 Jun 2020
PIVEN: A Deep Neural Network for Prediction Intervals with Specific Value Prediction Eli Simhayev Gilad Katz Lior Rokach OOD 9 12 0 09 Jun 2020
Robust Learning Through Cross-Task Consistency Amir Zamir Alexander Sax Teresa Yeo Oğuzhan Fatih Kar Nikhil Cheerla Rohan Suri Zhangjie Cao Jitendra Malik Leonidas J. Guibas OOD 14 154 0 07 Jun 2020
Self-Supervised Dynamic Networks for Covariate Shift Robustness Tomer Cohen Noy Shulman Hai Morgenstern Roey Mechrez Erez Farhan OOD 19 4 0 06 Jun 2020
Bayesian Neural Networks Tom Charnock Laurence Perreault Levasseur F. Lanusse UQCV BDL 18 3 0 02 Jun 2020
Fully probabilistic quasar continua predictions near Lyman-α with conditional neural spline flows D. Reiman John Tamanas J. Prochaska Dominika Ďurovčíková 26 6 0 31 May 2020
MOPO: Model-based Offline Policy Optimization Tianhe Yu G. Thomas Lantao Yu Stefano Ermon James Zou Sergey Levine Chelsea Finn Tengyu Ma OffRL 30 754 0 27 May 2020
Detecting Adversarial Examples for Speech Recognition via Uncertainty Quantification Sina Daubener Lea Schonherr Asja Fischer D. Kolossa AAML 37 18 0 24 May 2020
Beyond the Mean-Field: Structured Deep Gaussian Processes Improve the Predictive Uncertainties J. Lindinger David Reeb C. Lippert Barbara Rakitsch BDL UQCV 25 8 0 22 May 2020
Efficient Ensemble Model Generation for Uncertainty Estimation with Bayesian Approximation in Segmentation Hong Joo Lee S. T. Kim Hakmin Lee Nassir Navab Yong Man Ro UQCV 16 7 0 21 May 2020
Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation M. Fomicheva Shuo Sun Lisa Yankovskaya Frédéric Blain Francisco Guzmán Mark Fishel Nikolaos Aletras Vishrav Chaudhary Lucia Specia UQLM 20 184 0 21 May 2020
Inferring astrophysical X-ray polarization with deep learning N. Moriakov Ashwin Samudre M. Negro Fabian Gieseke Sydney Otten L. Hendriks 8 3 0 16 May 2020
Deep Ensembles on a Fixed Memory Budget: One Wide Network or Several Thinner Ones? Nadezhda Chirkova E. Lobacheva Dmitry Vetrov OOD MoE 18 9 0 14 May 2020
Deeply Uncertain: Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning Algorithms J. Caldeira Brian D. Nord BDL UQCV UD 17 79 0 22 Apr 2020
Deep State Space Models for Nonlinear System Identification Daniel Gedon Niklas Wahlström Thomas B. Schon L. Ljung 26 83 0 31 Mar 2020
On Calibration of Mixup Training for Deep Neural Networks Juan Maroñas D. Ramos-Castro Roberto Paredes Palacios UQCV 30 6 0 22 Mar 2020
A comprehensive study on the prediction reliability of graph neural networks for virtual screening Soojung Yang K. Lee Seongok Ryu 24 7 0 17 Mar 2020
Anomalous Example Detection in Deep Learning: A Survey Saikiran Bulusu B. Kailkhura Bo-wen Li P. Varshney D. Song AAML 28 47 0 16 Mar 2020
Intra Order-preserving Functions for Calibration of Multi-Class Neural Networks Amir M. Rahimi Amirreza Shaban Ching-An Cheng Richard I. Hartley Byron Boots UQCV 14 68 0 15 Mar 2020
Diversity inducing Information Bottleneck in Model Ensembles Samarth Sinha Homanga Bharadhwaj Anirudh Goyal Hugo Larochelle Animesh Garg Florian Shkurti BDL UQCV 22 40 0 10 Mar 2020
Dropout Strikes Back: Improved Uncertainty Estimation via Diversity Sampling Kirill Fedyanin Evgenii Tsymbalov Maxim Panov UQCV 27 7 0 06 Mar 2020
Uncertainty Estimation Using a Single Deep Deterministic Neural Network Joost R. van Amersfoort Lewis Smith Yee Whye Teh Y. Gal UQCV BDL 14 55 0 04 Mar 2020
Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference with Mixtures Warren Morningstar Sharad M. Vikram Cusuh Ham Andrew Gallagher Joshua V. Dillon DRL BDL 12 20 0 03 Mar 2020
Calibrated Prediction with Covariate Shift via Unsupervised Domain Adaptation Sangdon Park Osbert Bastani James Weimer Insup Lee 31 52 0 29 Feb 2020
A general framework for ensemble distribution distillation Jakob Lindqvist Amanda Olmin Fredrik Lindsten Lennart Svensson FedML UQCV BDL 9 19 0 26 Feb 2020
Being Bayesian, Even Just a Bit, Fixes Overconfidence in ReLU Networks Agustinus Kristiadi Matthias Hein Philipp Hennig BDL UQCV 33 277 0 24 Feb 2020