Uncertainty Decomposition

Investigates methods to break down predictive uncertainty into components, such as aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.

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Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning: One Size Does Not Fit All Paul Hofman Yusuf Sale Eyke Hüllermeier UQCV UD 138 0 0 13 Dec 2025
Calibrated Decomposition of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Deep Features for Inference-Time Adaptation Divake Kumar Patrick Poggi Sina Tayebati Devashri Naik Nilesh Ahuja A. R. Trivedi UD PER 156 0 0 15 Nov 2025
Credal Ensemble Distillation for Uncertainty QuantificationIEEE Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2021 Kaizheng Wang Fabio Cuzzolin David Moens Hans Hallez UQCV UD 198 0 0 14 Nov 2025
A Generalized Bias-Variance Decomposition for Bregman Divergences David Pfau UD 244 24 0 11 Nov 2025
Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in Turbulence Models Minghan Chu Weicheng Qian UD 209 0 0 07 Nov 2025
Measuring Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in LLMs: Empirical Evaluation on ID and OOD QA Tasks Kevin Wang Subre Abdoul Moktar Jia Li Kangshuo Li Feng Chen UD 244 0 0 05 Nov 2025
Bayesian Neural Networks vs. Mixture Density Networks: Theoretical and Empirical Insights for Uncertainty-Aware Nonlinear Modeling R. Ghosh Ian Barnett BDL UD 346 0 0 28 Oct 2025
Frequentist Validity of Epistemic Uncertainty Estimators Anchit Jain Stephen Bates UD UQCV PER 219 0 0 24 Oct 2025
Uncertainty in Machine Learning Hans Weytjens Wouter Verbeke UD 205 0 0 07 Oct 2025
Quantifying Ambiguity in Categorical Annotations: A Measure and Statistical Inference Framework Christopher Klugmann Daniel Kondermann UD 195 0 0 05 Oct 2025
Fine-Grained Uncertainty Decomposition in Large Language Models: A Spectral ApproachIEEE Workshop on Applications of Signal Processing to Audio and Acoustics (WASPAA), 2025 Nassim Walha Sebastian G. Gruber Thomas Decker Yinchong Yang Alireza Javanmardi Eyke Hüllermeier Florian Buettner UQCV UD PER 439 0 0 26 Sep 2025
System-Level Uncertainty Quantification with Multiple Machine Learning Models: A Theoretical Framework Xiaoping Du UD 120 0 0 20 Sep 2025
Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights Marzieh Ajirak Anand Ravishankar Petar M. Djurić UD PER 220 0 0 07 Sep 2025
Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions H. Martin Gillis Isaac Xu Thomas Trappenberg UQCV PER UD 195 0 0 07 Sep 2025
When three experiments are better than two: Avoiding intractable correlated aleatoric uncertainty by leveraging a novel bias--variance tradeoff P. Scherer Andreas Kirsch J. Taylor-King UD 150 0 0 04 Sep 2025
Variational Uncertainty Decomposition for In-Context Learning I. Shavindra Jayasekera Jacob Si Filippo Valdettaro Wenlong Chen Aldo A. Faisal Yingzhen Li BDL UQCV UD PER 291 0 0 02 Sep 2025
Uncertainty-Aware PCA for Arbitrarily Distributed Data Modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models Daniel Klotzl Ozan Tastekin David Hägele Marina Evers Daniel Weiskopf UD 142 0 0 19 Aug 2025
UbiQTree: Uncertainty Quantification in XAI with Tree Ensembles Akshat Dubey Aleksandar Anžel Bahar İlgen Georges Hattab FAtt UD 220 0 0 13 Aug 2025
Efficient Uncertainty in LLMs through Evidential Knowledge Distillation Lakshmana Sri Harsha Nemani P.K. Srijith Tomasz Kuśmierczyk UQCV EDL UD 180 0 0 24 Jul 2025
Robust Explanations Through Uncertainty Decomposition: A Path to Trustworthier AI Chenrui Zhu Louenas Bounia Vu Linh Nguyen Sébastien Destercke Arthur Hoarau UD UQCV PER 132 0 0 17 Jul 2025
CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk Ilia Azizi Juraj Bodik Jakob Heiss Bin Yu UQCV UD 350 2 0 10 Jul 2025
Disentangling Doubt in Deep Causal AI Cooper Doyle OOD UQCV CML UD 111 0 0 04 Jul 2025
Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Measures for Ordinal Classification through Binary Reduction Stefan Haas Eyke Hüllermeier UQCV UD PER 141 0 0 01 Jul 2025
Why Machine Learning Models Fail to Fully Capture Epistemic Uncertainty Sebastián Jiménez Mira Jürgens Willem Waegeman UD PER 588 2 0 29 May 2025
Uncertainty Profiles for LLMs: Uncertainty Source Decomposition and Adaptive Model-Metric Selection Pei-Fu Guo Yun-Da Tsai Shou-De Lin UD 273 1 0 12 May 2025
Uncertainty in Repeated Implicit Feedback as a Measure of ReliabilityUser Modeling, Adaptation, and Personalization (UMAP), 2025 Bruno Sguerra V. Tran Romain Hennequin Manuel Moussallam UD 272 4 0 05 May 2025
Cooperative Bayesian and variance networks disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties Jiaxiang Yi Miguel A. Bessa UD PER UQCV 309 1 0 05 May 2025
Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantification Maryam Sultana Neil Yorke-Smith Kaizheng Wang Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal Muhammad Mubashar Fabio Cuzzolin UQCV BDL UD 296 1 0 04 May 2025
An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression Christopher Bülte Yusuf Sale Timo Löhr Paul Hofman Gitta Kutyniok Eyke Hüllermeier UD 387 6 0 25 Apr 2025
Measuring and Analyzing Subjective Uncertainty in Scientific Communications Jamshid Sourati Grace Shao UD 164 0 0 27 Mar 2025
A decision-theoretic approach to dealing with uncertainty in quantum mechanics Keano De Vos G. Cooman Alexander Erreygers Jasper De Bock UD 318 0 0 26 Mar 2025
Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data RepresentationConference on Learning for Dynamics & Control (L4DC), 2025 Zhiyu An Zhibo Hou Wan Du UQCV UD 266 1 0 20 Mar 2025
Do you understand epistemic uncertainty? Think again! Rigorous frequentist epistemic uncertainty estimation in regression Enrico Foglia Benjamin Bobbia Nikita Durasov Michaël Bauerheim Pascal Fua S. Moreau Thierry Jardin UQCV UD PER 282 0 0 17 Mar 2025
Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations Nick Winovich Mitchell Daneker Lu Lu Guang Lin UQCV UD 211 0 0 05 Mar 2025
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: A Concept-based Approach to Explaining Uncertainty Isaac Roberts Alexander Schulz Sarah Schroeder Fabian Hinder Barbara Hammer UD 319 0 0 05 Mar 2025
Logit Disagreement: OoD Detection with Bayesian Neural Networks Kevin Raina UQCV BDL UD PER 367 1 0 24 Feb 2025
Reducing Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty through Multi-modal Data Acquisition Arthur Hoarau Benjamin Quost Sébastien Destercke Willem Waegeman UQCV UD PER 320 3 0 30 Jan 2025
Bias-variance decompositions: the exclusive privilege of Bregman divergences Tom Heskes UD 314 1 0 30 Jan 2025
Can Bayesian Neural Networks Explicitly Model Input Uncertainty? Matias Valdenegro-Toro Marco Zullich BDL PER UQCV UD 868 0 0 14 Jan 2025
From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligence Tianyang Wang Longji Xu Jun Zhou Cheng Fei Xinyuan Song ... Ming Liu Yujiao Shi Cheng Fei Cheng Fei Lawrence K. Q. Yan UD 225 15 0 08 Jan 2025
Bayesian Active Learning By Distribution Disagreement Thorben Werner Lars Schmidt-Thieme UQCV UD 146 0 0 03 Jan 2025
Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Freddie Bickford-Smith Jannik Kossen Eleanor Trollope Mark van der Wilk Adam Foster Tom Rainforth UD PER 356 5 0 30 Dec 2024
Provable Uncertainty Decomposition via Higher-Order Calibration Gustaf Ahdritz Aravind Gollakota Parikshit Gopalan Charlotte Peale Udi Wieder UD UQCV PER 328 1 0 25 Dec 2024
Probabilistic Modeling of Disparity Uncertainty for Robust and Efficient Stereo Matching Wenxiao Cai Dongting Hu Ruoyan Yin Jiankang Deng Huan Fu Wankou Yang Mingming Gong UQCV UD 230 0 0 24 Dec 2024
Uncertainty separation via ensemble quantile regression Navid Ansari Hans-Peter Seidel Vahid Babaei UD UQCV 310 0 0 18 Dec 2024
Improving Active Learning with a Bayesian Representation of Epistemic Uncertainty Jake Thomas Jeremie Houssineau UQCV UD PER 213 2 0 11 Dec 2024
Redesigning the ensemble Kalman filter with a dedicated model of epistemic uncertainty Chatchuea Kimchaiwong Jeremie Houssineau Adam M. Johansen UD 193 0 0 28 Nov 2024
DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods Rebecca Nevin A. Ćiprijanović Brian D. Nord UQCV UD 148 1 0 13 Nov 2024
Double-Bayesian Learning Stefan Jaeger BDL UD 152 0 0 16 Oct 2024
On Information-Theoretic Measures of Predictive UncertaintyConference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2024 Kajetan Schweighofer L. Aichberger Mykyta Ielanskyi Sepp Hochreiter UQCV UD 357 11 0 14 Oct 2024

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