Uncertainty Quantification for Language Models

UQLM

Includes research that specifically explores methodologies for assessing and communicating the confidence and reliability of predictions made by language models.

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Confidence-Modulated Speculative Decoding for Large Language Models Jaydip Sen Subhasis Dasgupta Hetvi Waghela UQLM 110 1 0 21 Aug 2025
Uncertainty Quantification for Evaluating Machine Translation Bias Ieva Staliunaite Julius Cheng Andreas Vlachos UQLM 98 0 0 24 Jul 2025
SelfReflect: Can LLMs Communicate Their Internal Answer Distribution? Michael Kirchhof Luca Füger Adam Goliñski Eeshan Gunesh Dhekane Arno Blaas Seong Joon Oh Sinead Williamson UQLM ELM 270 3 2 26 May 2025
Ensemble Kalman filter for uncertainty in human language comprehension Diksha Bhandari Alessandro Lopopolo Milena Rabovsky Sebastian Reich BDL UQLM 160 0 0 05 May 2025
Using Source-Side Confidence Estimation for Reliable Translation into Unfamiliar Languages Kenneth J. Sible David Chiang UQLM 66 0 0 30 Mar 2025
Annotating Scientific Uncertainty: A comprehensive model using linguistic patterns and comparison with existing approaches Panggih Kusuma Ningrum Philipp Mayr N. Smirnova Iana Atanassova UQLM 165 1 0 14 Mar 2025
Posterior SBC: Simulation-Based Calibration Checking Conditional on Data Teemu Säilynoja Marvin Schmitt Paul-Christian Bürkner Aki Vehtari UQLM 131 6 0 05 Feb 2025
BLoB: Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation by Backpropagation for Large Language ModelsNeural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2024 Yibin Wang Haizhou Shi Ligong Han Dimitris N. Metaxas Hao Wang BDL UQLM 364 18 0 28 Jan 2025
Uncovering Uncertainty in Transformer Inference Greyson Brothers Willa Mannering Amber Tien John Winder UQLM 115 0 0 08 Dec 2024
Towards Understanding and Quantifying Uncertainty for Text-to-Image GenerationComputer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2024 Gianni Franchi Dat Nguyen Trong Nacim Belkhir Guoxuan Xia Andrea Pilzer UQLM 202 2 0 04 Dec 2024
Keep Guessing? When Considering Inference Scaling, Mind the BaselinesNorth American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics (NAACL), 2024 G. Yona Or Honovich Omer Levy Roee Aharoni UQLM LRM 188 0 0 20 Oct 2024
QUITE: Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Text in Bayesian Reasoning ScenariosConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2024 Timo Pierre Schrader Lukas Lange Simon Razniewski Annemarie Friedrich UQLM 111 3 0 14 Oct 2024
UncertaintyRAG: Span-Level Uncertainty Enhanced Long-Context Modeling for Retrieval-Augmented Generation Zixuan Li Jing Xiong Fanghua Ye Chuanyang Zheng Xun Wu ... Xiaodan Liang Chengming Li Zhenan Sun Lingpeng Kong Ngai Wong RALM UQLM 178 3 0 03 Oct 2024
Pre-training and in-context learning IS Bayesian inference a la De Finetti Naimeng Ye Hanming Yang Andrew Siah Hongseok Namkoong BDL UQLM 103 5 0 06 Aug 2024
Evaluating language models as risk scores André F. Cruz Moritz Hardt Celestine Mendler-Dünner LMTD ELM UQLM 35 18 0 19 Jul 2024
On Subjective Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration in Natural Language GenerationInternational Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2024 Ziyu Wang Chris Holmes UQLM 230 7 0 07 Jun 2024
Uncertainty-aware sign language video retrieval with probability distribution modeling Xuan Wu Hongxiang Li Yuanjiang Luo Xuxin Cheng Xianwei Zhuang Meng Cao Keren Fu UQLM SLR 99 7 0 30 May 2024
Addressing Misspecification in Simulation-based Inference through Data-driven Calibration Antoine Wehenkel Juan L. Gamella Ozan Sener Jens Behrmann Guillermo Sapiro Marco Cuturi J. Jacobsen UQLM 259 20 0 14 May 2024
Análise de ambiguidade linguística em modelos de linguagem de grande escala (LLMs) Lavínia de Carvalho Moraes Irene Cristina Silvério Rafael Alexandre Sousa Marques Bianca de Castro Anaia Dandara Freitas de Paula Maria Carolina Schincariol de Faria Iury Cleveston Alana de Santana Correia Raquel Meister Ko. Freitag UQLM 33 0 0 25 Apr 2024
Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyond Neha Gupta Harikrishna Narasimhan Wittawat Jitkrittum A. S. Rawat A. Menon Sanjiv Kumar UQLM 215 78 0 15 Apr 2024
A Taxonomy of Ambiguity Types for NLP Margaret Li Alisa Liu Zhaofeng Wu Noah A. Smith UQLM 85 3 0 21 Mar 2024
Calibrating Large Language Models Using Their Generations OnlyAnnual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), 2024 Dennis Ulmer Martin Gubri Hwaran Lee Sangdoo Yun Seong Joon Oh UQLM 607 49 1 09 Mar 2024
Word-Sequence Entropy: Towards Uncertainty Estimation in Free-Form Medical Question Answering Applications and Beyond Zhiyuan Wang Jinhao Duan Chenxi Yuan Qingyu Chen Tianlong Chen Huaxiu Yao Yue Zhang Ren Wang Kaidi Xu Xiaoshuang Shi UQLM 230 18 0 22 Feb 2024
Sequence graphs realizations and ambiguity in language models Sammy Khalife Yann Ponty Laurent Bulteau UQLM 141 0 0 13 Feb 2024
R-Tuning: Instructing Large Language Models to Say `I Don't Know' Hanning Zhang Shizhe Diao Yong Lin Yi R. Fung Qing Lian Xingyao Wang Yangyi Chen Heng Ji Tong Zhang UQLM 200 67 0 16 Nov 2023
Uncertainty Estimation on Sequential Labeling via Uncertainty Transmission Jianfeng He Linlin Yu Shuo Lei Chang-Tien Lu Feng Chen UQLM 137 12 0 15 Nov 2023
ChatGPT Prompting Cannot Estimate Predictive Uncertainty in High-Resource Languages Martino Pelucchi Matias Valdenegro-Toro UQLM AI4MH 164 3 0 10 Nov 2023
Tree of Clarifications: Answering Ambiguous Questions with Retrieval-Augmented Large Language ModelsConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Gangwoo Kim Sungdong Kim Byeongguk Jeon Joonsuk Park Jaewoo Kang UQLM 111 41 0 23 Oct 2023
Reasoning about Ambiguous Definite DescriptionsConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Stefan F. Schouten Peter Bloem Ilia Markov Piek Vossen LRM UQLM 48 0 0 23 Oct 2023
Representing and Computing Uncertainty in Phonological Reconstruction Johann-Mattis List Nathan W. Hill Robert Forkel Frederic Blum UQLM 28 1 0 19 Oct 2023
Uncertainty-aware Parameter-Efficient Self-training for Semi-supervised Language UnderstandingConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Jianing Wang Qiushi Sun Nuo Chen Chengyu Wang Jun Huang Ming Gao Xiang Li UQLM 99 4 0 19 Oct 2023
Batch Calibration: Rethinking Calibration for In-Context Learning and Prompt EngineeringInternational Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2023 Han Zhou Xingchen Wan Lev Proleev Diana Mincu Jilin Chen Katherine A. Heller Subhrajit Roy UQLM 153 73 0 29 Sep 2023
Conformal Autoregressive Generation: Beam Search with Coverage GuaranteesAAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2023 Nicolas Deutschmann Marvin Alberts María Rodríguez Martínez UQLM 106 15 0 07 Sep 2023
Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Review on Applications and Measurement Methods with Focus on Text Mining MethodsSocial Science Research Network (SSRN), 2023 Fatemeh Kaveh-Yazdy S. Zarifzadeh UQLM UD 66 0 0 20 Aug 2023
Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation: From Theory to Applications Joris Baan Nico Daheim Evgenia Ilia Dennis Ulmer Haau-Sing Li Raquel Fernández Barbara Plank Rico Sennrich Chrysoula Zerva Wilker Aziz UQLM 247 59 0 28 Jul 2023
UnScientify: Detecting Scientific Uncertainty in Scholarly Full Text Panggih Kusuma Ningrum Philipp Mayr Iana Atanassova UQLM 51 3 0 26 Jul 2023
Evaluating Machine Translation Quality with Conformal Predictive DistributionsInternational Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications (ISCPPA), 2023 Patrizio Giovannotti UQLM 139 9 0 02 Jun 2023
Towards Reliable Misinformation Mitigation: Generalization, Uncertainty, and GPT-4Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Kellin Pelrine Anne Imouza Camille Thibault Meilina Reksoprodjo Caleb Gupta J. Christoph Jean-François Godbout Reihaneh Rabbany UQLM AI4CE 179 51 0 24 May 2023
Selectively Answering Ambiguous QuestionsConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Jeremy R. Cole Michael J.Q. Zhang D. Gillick Julian Martin Eisenschlos Bhuwan Dhingra Jacob Eisenstein UQLM 202 44 0 24 May 2023
Discriminative calibration: Check Bayesian computation from simulations and flexible classifierNeural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2023 Yuling Yao Justin Domke UQLM 239 2 0 24 May 2023
Asking Clarification Questions to Handle Ambiguity in Open-Domain QAConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Dongryeol Lee Segwang Kim Minwoo Lee Hwanhee Lee Joonsuk Park Sang-Woo Lee Kyomin Jung UQLM 165 21 0 23 May 2023
What Comes Next? Evaluating Uncertainty in Neural Text Generators Against Human Production VariabilityConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Mario Giulianelli Joris Baan Wilker Aziz Raquel Fernández Barbara Plank UQLM 200 42 0 19 May 2023
Conformal Nucleus SamplingAnnual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), 2023 Shauli Ravfogel Carlos Wert Carvajal M.F. Eggl UQLM 157 28 0 04 May 2023
On Uncertainty Calibration and Selective Generation in Probabilistic Neural Summarization: A Benchmark StudyConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Polina Zablotskaia Du Phan Joshua Maynez Shashi Narayan Jie Jessie Ren J. Liu UQLM UQCV 140 24 0 17 Apr 2023
Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language GenerationInternational Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2023 Lorenz Kuhn Y. Gal Sebastian Farquhar UQLM 347 423 0 19 Feb 2023
Uncertainty-aware Self-training for Low-resource Neural Sequence LabelingAAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2023 Jiadong Wang Chengyu Wang Jun Huang Ming Gao Aoying Zhou BDL UQLM NoLa 129 4 0 17 Feb 2023
Linguistic ambiguity analysis in ChatGPT Miguel Ortega-Martín Óscar García-Sierra Alfonso Ardoiz Jorge Álvarez J. C. Armenteros Adrián Alonso UQLM AI4CE 107 28 0 13 Feb 2023
Neural-Symbolic Inference for Robust Autoregressive Graph Parsing via Compositional Uncertainty QuantificationConference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 2023 Zi Lin J. Liu Jingbo Shang UQLM 88 6 0 26 Jan 2023
How Does Beam Search improve Span-Level Confidence Estimation in Generative Sequence Labeling? Kazuma Hashimoto Iftekhar Naim K. Raman UQLM 220 2 0 21 Dec 2022
Task Ambiguity in Humans and Language Models Alex Tamkin Kunal Handa Ava Shrestha Noah D. Goodman UQLM 159 24 0 20 Dec 2022

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