Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

28 February 2024

Papers citing "Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models"

23 / 23 papers shown

Title
PROPHET: An Inferable Future Forecasting Benchmark with Causal Intervened Likelihood Estimation Zhengwei Tao Zhi Jin Bincheng Li Xiaoying Bai Haiyan Zhao Chengfeng Dou Xiancai Chen Jia Li♂ Linyu Li Chongyang Tao AI4TS 35 0 0 02 Apr 2025
Adaptively evaluating models with task elicitation Davis Brown Prithvi Balehannina Helen Jin Shreya Havaldar Hamed Hassani Eric Wong ALM ELM 91 0 0 03 Mar 2025
Tell Me Why: Incentivizing Explanations Siddarth Srinivasan Ezra Karger Michiel Bakker Yiling Chen FAtt 60 0 0 20 Feb 2025
LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future Benjamin Turtel Danny Franklin Philipp Schoenegger LRM 57 0 0 07 Feb 2025
Real-time Fake News from Adversarial Feedback Sanxing Chen Yukun Huang Bhuwan Dhingra 39 0 0 31 Dec 2024
Modeling Story Expectations to Understand Engagement: A Generative Framework Using LLMs Hortense Fong George Gui HAI 86 0 0 13 Dec 2024
Forecasting Future International Events: A Reliable Dataset for Text-Based Event Modeling Daehoon Gwak Junwoo Park Minho Park C. Park Hyunchan Lee E. Choi Jaegul Choo 74 0 0 21 Nov 2024
DeFine: Enhancing LLM Decision-Making with Factor Profiles and Analogical Reasoning Yebowen Hu Xiaoyang Wang Wenlin Yao Yiming Lu Daoan Zhang H. Foroosh Dong Yu Fei Liu 34 4 0 02 Oct 2024
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities Ezra Karger Houtan Bastani Chen Yueh-Han Zachary Jacobs Danny Halawi Fred Zhang P. Tetlock 33 6 0 30 Sep 2024
Novel-WD: Exploring acquisition of Novel World Knowledge in LLMs Using Prefix-Tuning Maxime Méloux Christophe Cerisara KELM CLL 24 0 0 30 Aug 2024
Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting Elvis Hsieh Preston Fu Jonathan Chen ReLM LLMAG LRM 29 1 0 21 Aug 2024
OpenEP: Open-Ended Future Event Prediction Yong Guan Hao Peng Xiaozhi Wang Lei Hou Juanzi Li 29 2 0 13 Aug 2024
Can Language Models Use Forecasting Strategies? Sarah Pratt Seth Blumberg Pietro K. Carolino Meredith Ringel Morris ELM 37 3 0 06 Jun 2024
Zero-shot Safety Prediction for Autonomous Robots with Foundation World Models Zhenjiang Mao Siqi Dai Yuang Geng Ivan Ruchkin 35 3 0 30 Mar 2024
Human vs. Machine: Behavioral Differences Between Expert Humans and Language Models in Wargame Simulations Max Lamparth Anthony Corso Jacob Ganz O. Mastro Jacquelyn G. Schneider Harold Trinkunas 51 7 0 06 Mar 2024
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy P. Schoenegger Indre Tuminauskaite Peter S. Park Rafael Valdece Sousa Bastos P. Tetlock 35 24 0 29 Feb 2024
Event-level Knowledge Editing Hao Peng Xiaozhi Wang Chunyang Li Kaisheng Zeng Jiangshan Duo Yixin Cao Lei Hou Juanzi Li KELM 42 5 0 20 Feb 2024
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy P. Schoenegger Peter S. Park Ezra Karger P. Tetlock 41 14 0 12 Feb 2024
Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers Gerald Woo Chenghao Liu Akshat Kumar Caiming Xiong Silvio Savarese Doyen Sahoo AI4TS 111 161 0 04 Feb 2024
Distilling Event Sequence Knowledge From Large Language Models Somin Wadhwa Oktie Hassanzadeh D. Bhattacharjya Ken Barker Jian Ni 24 1 0 14 Jan 2024
Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI Mahdi Abolghasemi Odkhishig Ganbold Kristian Rotaru 22 8 0 12 Dec 2023
ForecastPFN: Synthetically-Trained Zero-Shot Forecasting Samuel Dooley Gurnoor Singh Khurana Chirag Mohapatra Siddartha Naidu Colin White AI4TS 84 58 0 03 Nov 2023
Unsolved Problems in ML Safety Dan Hendrycks Nicholas Carlini John Schulman Jacob Steinhardt 186 273 0 28 Sep 2021