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Ergodic theorems for imprecise probability kinematics

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (IJAR), 2020
Abstract

In a standard Bayesian setting, there is often ambiguity in prior choice, as one may have not sufficient information to uniquely identify a suitable prior probability measure encapsulating initial beliefs. To overcome this, we specify a set P\mathcal{P} of plausible prior probability measures; as more and more data are collected, P\mathcal{P} is updated using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning, an alternative to Bayesian updating which proves to be more philosophically compelling in many situations. We build the sequence (Pk)(\mathcal{P}^*_k) of successive updates of P\mathcal{P} and we provide an ergodic theory to analyze its limit, for both countable and uncountable sample spaces. A result of this ergodic theory is a strong law of large numbers in the uncountable setting. We also develop a procedure for updating lower probabilities using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning.

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