Ergodic theorems for imprecise probability kinematics
In a standard Bayesian setting, there is often ambiguity in prior choice, as one may have not sufficient information to uniquely identify a suitable prior probability measure encapsulating initial beliefs. To overcome this, we specify a set of plausible prior probability measures; as more and more data are collected, is updated using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning, an alternative to Bayesian updating which proves to be more philosophically compelling in many situations. We build the sequence of successive updates of and we provide an ergodic theory to analyze its limit, for both countable and uncountable sample spaces. A result of this ergodic theory is a strong law of large numbers in the uncountable setting. We also develop a procedure for updating lower probabilities using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning.
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