Ergodic theorems for imprecise probability kinematics
In a standard Bayesian setting, there is often ambiguity in prior choice, as one may have not sufficient information to uniquely identify a suitable prior probability measure encapsulating initial beliefs. To overcome this, we specify a set of plausible prior probability measures; as more and more data are collected, is updated using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning, an alternative to Bayesian updating which proves to be more philosophically compelling in many situations. We build the sequence of successive updates of and we develop an ergodic theory for its limit, for countable and uncountable sample space . A result of this ergodic theory is a strong law of large numbers when is uncountable. We also develop procedure for updating lower probabilities using Jeffrey's rule of conditioning.
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