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Yes, but Did It Work?: Evaluating Variational Inference

7 February 2018
Yuling Yao
Aki Vehtari
Daniel P. Simpson
Andrew Gelman
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Abstract

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) diagnostic gives a goodness of fit measurement for joint distributions, while simultaneously improving the error in the estimate. The variational simulation-based calibration (VSBC) assesses the average performance of point estimates.

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