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Nowcast3D: Reliable precipitation nowcasting via gray-box learning

6 November 2025
Huaguan Chen
Wei Han
Haofei Sun
Ning Lin
Xingtao Song
Y. Yang
Jie Tian
Yang Liu
Ji-Rong Wen
Xiaoye Zhang
Xueshun Shen
Hao Sun
    AI4Cl
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTMLGithub (3★)
Main:15 Pages
7 Figures
Bibliography:4 Pages
Appendix:6 Pages
Abstract

Extreme precipitation nowcasting demands high spatiotemporal fidelity and extended lead times, yet existing approaches remain limited. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and its deep-learning emulations are too slow and coarse for rapidly evolving convection, while extrapolation and purely data-driven models suffer from error accumulation and excessive smoothing. Hybrid 2D radar-based methods discard crucial vertical information, preventing accurate reconstruction of height-dependent dynamics. We introduce a gray-box, fully three-dimensional nowcasting framework that directly processes volumetric radar reflectivity and couples physically constrained neural operators with datadriven learning. The model learns vertically varying 3D advection fields under a conservative advection operator, parameterizes spatially varying diffusion, and introduces a Brownian-motion--inspired stochastic term to represent unresolved motions. A residual branch captures small-scale convective initiation and microphysical variability, while a diffusion-based stochastic module estimates uncertainty. The framework achieves more accurate forecasts up to three-hour lead time across precipitation regimes and ranked first in 57\% of cases in a blind evaluation by 160 meteorologists. By restoring full 3D dynamics with physical consistency, it offers a scalable and robust pathway for skillful and reliable nowcasting of extreme precipitation.

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