Investigating the Robustness of Knowledge Tracing Models in the Presence of Student Concept Drift

Knowledge Tracing (KT) has been an established problem in the educational data mining field for decades, and it is commonly assumed that the underlying learning process be- ing modeled remains static. Given the ever-changing land- scape of online learning platforms (OLPs), we investigate how concept drift and changing student populations can im- pact student behavior within an OLP through testing model performance both within a single academic year and across multiple academic years. Four well-studied KT models were applied to five academic years of data to assess how suscep- tible KT models are to concept drift. Through our analysis, we find that all four families of KT models can exhibit de- graded performance, Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) remains the most stable KT model when applied to newer data, while more complex, attention based models lose pre- dictive power significantly faster. To foster more longitu- dinal evaluations of KT models, the data used to conduct our analysis is available at this https URL only=b936c63dfdae4b0b987a2f0d4038f72a