Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physics-informed causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a physics-informed approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.

@article{hickman2025_2506.09891,
  title={ Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering },
  author={ Sebastian Hickman and Ilija Trajkovic and Julia Kaltenborn and Francis Pelletier and Alex Archibald and Yaniv Gurwicz and Peer Nowack and David Rolnick and Julien Boussard },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.09891},
  year={ 2025 }
}