Identification of Probabilities of Causation: A Complete Characterization

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to modern decision-making. Pearl first introduced three binary probabilities of causation, and Tian and Pearl later derived tight bounds for them using Balke's linear programming. The theoretical characterization of probabilities of causation with multi-valued treatments and outcomes has remained unresolved for decades, limiting the scope of causality-based decision-making. In this paper, we resolve this foundational gap by proposing a complete set of representative probabilities of causation and proving that they are sufficient to characterize all possible probabilities of causation within the framework of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We then formally derive tight bounds for these representative quantities using formal mathematical proofs. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our results through illustrative toy examples.

@article{shu2025_2505.15274,
  title={ Identification of Probabilities of Causation: A Complete Characterization },
  author={ Xin Shu and Shuai Wang and Ang Li },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.15274},
  year={ 2025 }
}