Discovering the Precursors of Traffic Breakdowns Using Spatiotemporal Graph Attribution Networks

Understanding and predicting the precursors of traffic breakdowns is critical for improving road safety and traffic flow management. This paper presents a novel approach combining spatiotemporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) with Shapley values to identify and interpret traffic breakdown precursors. By extending Shapley explanation methods to a spatiotemporal setting, our proposed method bridges the gap between black-box neural network predictions and interpretable causes. We demonstrate the method on the Interstate-24 data, and identify that road topology and abrupt braking are major factors that lead to traffic breakdowns.

@article{mo2025_2504.17109,
  title={ Discovering the Precursors of Traffic Breakdowns Using Spatiotemporal Graph Attribution Networks },
  author={ Zhaobin Mo and Xiangyi Liao and Dominik A. Karbowski and Yanbing Wang },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.17109},
  year={ 2025 }
}