Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.
View on arXiv@article{kwa2025_2503.14499,
title={ Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks },
author={ Thomas Kwa and Ben West and Joel Becker and Amy Deng and Katharyn Garcia and Max Hasin and Sami Jawhar and Megan Kinniment and Nate Rush and Sydney Von Arx and Ryan Bloom and Thomas Broadley and Haoxing Du and Brian Goodrich and Nikola Jurkovic and Luke Harold Miles and Seraphina Nix and Tao Lin and Neev Parikh and David Rein and Lucas Jun Koba Sato and Hjalmar Wijk and Daniel M. Ziegler and Elizabeth Barnes and Lawrence Chan },
journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.14499},
year={ 2025 }
}