Modern machine learning pipelines leverage large amounts of public data, making it infeasible to guarantee data quality and leaving models open to poisoning and backdoor attacks. However, provably bounding model behavior under such attacks remains an open problem. In this work, we address this challenge and develop the first framework providing provable guarantees on the behavior of models trained with potentially manipulated data. In particular, our framework certifies robustness against untargeted and targeted poisoning as well as backdoor attacks for both input and label manipulations. Our method leverages convex relaxations to over-approximate the set of all possible parameter updates for a given poisoning threat model, allowing us to bound the set of all reachable parameters for any gradient-based learning algorithm. Given this set of parameters, we provide bounds on worst-case behavior, including model performance and backdoor success rate. We demonstrate our approach on multiple real-world datasets from applications including energy consumption, medical imaging, and autonomous driving.
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