The prompt estimation of traffic incident impacts can guide commuters in their trip planning and improve the resilience of transportation agencies' decision-making on resilience. However, it is more challenging than node-level and graph-level forecasting tasks, as it requires extracting the anomaly subgraph or sub-time-series from dynamic graphs. In this paper, we propose DG-Trans, a novel traffic incident impact prediction framework, to foresee the impact of traffic incidents through dynamic graph learning. The proposed framework contains a dual-level spatial transformer and an importance-score-based temporal transformer, and the performance of this framework is justified by two newly constructed benchmark datasets. The dual-level spatial transformer removes unnecessary edges between nodes to isolate the affected subgraph from the other nodes. Meanwhile, the importance-score-based temporal transformer identifies abnormal changes in node features, causing the predictions to rely more on measurement changes after the incident occurs. Therefore, DG-Trans is equipped with dual abilities that extract spatiotemporal dependency and identify anomaly nodes affected by incidents while removing noise introduced by benign nodes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets verify that DG-Trans outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods, especially in extracting spatiotemporal dependency patterns and predicting traffic accident impacts. It offers promising potential for traffic incident management systems.
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