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Detection of Long Range Dependence in the Time Domain for (In)Finite-Variance Time Series

Abstract

Empirical detection of long range dependence (LRD) of a time series often consists of deciding whether an estimate of the memory parameter dd corresponds to LRD. Surprisingly, the literature offers numerous spectral domain estimators for dd but there are only a few estimators in the time domain. Moreover, the latter estimators are criticized for relying on visual inspection to determine an observation window [n1,n2][n_1, n_2] for a linear regression to run on. Theoretically motivated choices of n1n_1 and n2n_2 are often missing for many time series models. In this paper, we take the well-known variance plot estimator and provide rigorous asymptotic conditions on [n1,n2][n_1, n_2] to ensure the estimator's consistency under LRD. We establish these conditions for a large class of square-integrable time series models. This large class enables one to use the variance plot estimator to detect LRD for infinite-variance time series (after suitable transformation). Thus, detection of LRD for infinite-variance time series is another novelty of our paper. A simulation study indicates that the variance plot estimator can detect LRD better than the popular spectral domain GPH estimator.

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