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The Bootstrap for Dynamical Systems

19 August 2021
Kasun Fernando
Nan Zou
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Abstract

Despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems often exhibit seemingly random behaviour. Consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model of which the unknown parameters must be estimated using statistical methods. When measuring the uncertainty of such parameter estimation, the bootstrap stands out as a simple but powerful technique. In this paper, we develop the bootstrap for dynamical systems and establish not only its consistency but also its second-order efficiency via a novel \textit{continuous} Edgeworth expansion for dynamical systems. This is the first time such continuous Edgeworth expansions have been studied. Moreover, we verify the theoretical results about the bootstrap using computer simulations.

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