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Uncertainty-Aware (UNA) Bases for Deep Bayesian Regression Using Multi-Headed Auxiliary Networks

21 June 2020
Sujay Thakur
Cooper Lorsung
Yaniv Yacoby
Finale Doshi-Velez
Weiwei Pan
    BDL
    UQCV
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Abstract

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused on methodically evaluating the predictive uncertainties of these models. In this work, we demonstrate that traditional training procedures for NLMs drastically underestimate uncertainty on out-of-distribution inputs, and that they therefore cannot be naively deployed in risk-sensitive applications. We identify the underlying reasons for this behavior and propose a novel training framework that captures useful predictive uncertainties for downstream tasks.

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