102
v1v2 (latest)

How simplifying and flexible is the simplifying assumption in pair-copula constructions -- analytic answers in dimension three and a glimpse beyond

Abstract

Motivated by the increasing popularity and the seemingly broad applicability of pair-copula constructions underlined by numerous publications in the last decade, in this contribution we tackle the unavoidable question on how flexible and simplifying the commonly used `simplifying assumption' is from an analytic perspective and provide answers to two related open questions posed by Nagler and Czado in 2016. Aiming at a simplest possible setup for deriving the main results we first focus on the three-dimensional setting. We prove that the family of simplified copulas is flexible in the sense that it is dense in the set of all three-dimensional co\-pulas with respect to the uniform metric dd_\infty - considering stronger notions of convergence like the one induced by the metric D1D_1, by weak conditional convergence, by total variation, or by Kullback-Leibler divergence, however, the family even turn out to be nowhere dense and hence insufficient for any kind of flexible approximation. Furthermore, returning to dd_\infty we show that the partial vine copula is never the optimal simplified copula approximation of a given, non-simplified copula CC, and derive examples illustrating that the corresponding approximation error can be strikingly large and extend to more than 28\% of the diameter of the metric space. Moreover, the mapping ψ\psi assigning each three-dimensional copula its unique partial vine copula turns out to be discontinuous with respect to dd_\infty (but continuous with respect to D1D_1 and to weak conditional convergence), implying a surprising sensitivity of partial vine copula approximations. The afore-mentioned main results concerning dd_\infty are then extended to the general multivariate setting.

View on arXiv
Comments on this paper