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Spike and Slab Pólya tree posterior distributions: adaptive inference

Abstract

In the density estimation model, the question of adaptive inference using P\ólya tree-type prior distributions is considered. A class of prior densities having a tree structure, called spike-and-slab P\ólya trees, is introduced. For this class, two types of results are obtained: first, the Bayesian posterior distribution is shown to converge at the minimax rate for the supremum norm in an adaptive way, for any H\"older regularity of the true density between 00 and 11, thereby providing adaptive counterparts to the results for classical P\ólya trees in Castillo (2017). Second, the question of uncertainty quantification is considered. An adaptive nonparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem is derived. Next, it is shown that, under a self-similarity condition on the true density, certain credible sets from the posterior distribution are adaptive confidence bands, having prescribed coverage level and with a diameter shrinking at optimal rate in the minimax sense.

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