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An Elementary Analysis of the Probability that a Binomial Random Variable Exceeds its Expectation

Abstract

We give an elementary proof of the fact that a binomial random variable XX with parameters nn and 0.29/np<10.29/n \le p < 1 with probability at least 1/41/4 strictly exceeds its expectation. We also show that for 1/np<11/n1/n \le p < 1 - 1/n, XX exceeds its expectation by more than one with probability at least 0.03700.0370. Both probabilities approach 1/21/2 when npnp and n(1p)n(1-p) tend to infinity.

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