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Relevant change points in high dimensional time series

15 April 2017
Holger Dette
Josua Gösmann
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTML
Abstract

This paper investigates the problem of detecting relevant change points in the mean vector, say μt=(μ1,t,…,μd,t)T\mu_t =(\mu_{1,t},\ldots ,\mu_{d,t})^Tμt​=(μ1,t​,…,μd,t​)T of a high dimensional time series (Zt)t∈Z(Z_t)_{t\in \mathbb{Z}}(Zt​)t∈Z​. While the recent literature on testing for change points in this context considers hypotheses for the equality of the means μh(1)\mu_h^{(1)}μh(1)​ and μh(2)\mu_h^{(2)}μh(2)​ before and after the change points in the different components, we are interested in a null hypothesis of the form H_0: |\mu^{(1)}_{h} - \mu^{(2)}_{h} | \leq \Delta_h ~~~\mbox{ for all } ~~h=1,\ldots ,d where Δ1,…,Δd\Delta_1, \ldots , \Delta_dΔ1​,…,Δd​ are given thresholds for which a smaller difference of the means in the hhh-th component is considered to be non-relevant. We propose a new test for this problem based on the maximum of squared and integrated CUSUM statistics and investigate its properties as the sample size nnn and the dimension ddd both converge to infinity. In particular, using Gaussian approximations for the maximum of a large number of dependent random variables, we show that on certain points of the boundary of the null hypothesis a standardised version of the maximum converges weakly to a Gumbel distribution.

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