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Adaptive nonparametric drift estimation for diffusion processes using Faber-Schauder expansions

15 December 2016
Frank van der Meulen
Moritz Schauer
J. van Waaij
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Abstract

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of the drift of a continuously observed one-dimensional diffusion with periodic drift. Motivated by computational considerations, van der Meulen e.a. (2014) defined a prior on the drift as a randomly truncated and randomly scaled Faber-Schauder series expansion with Gaussian coefficients. We study the behaviour of the posterior obtained from the prior from a frequentist asymptotic point of view. If the true data generating drift is smooth, it is proved that the posterior is adaptive with posterior contraction rates for the L2L_2L2​-norm that are optimal up to a log factor. Moreover, contraction rates in LpL_pLp​-norms with p∈(2,∞]p\in (2,\infty]p∈(2,∞] are derived as well.

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