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Optimal change point detection in Gaussian processes

3 June 2015
Hossein Keshavarz
Clayton Scott
X. Nguyen
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTML
Abstract

We study the problem of detecting a change in the mean of one-dimensional Gaussian process data. This problem is investigated in the setting of increasing domain (customarily employed in time series analysis) and in the setting of fixed domain (typically arising in spatial data analysis). We propose a detection method based on generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT), and show that our method achieves asymptotically optimal rate in the minimax sense, in both settings. The salient feature of the proposed method is that it exploits in an efficient way the data dependence captured by the Gaussian process covariance structure. When the covariance is not known, we propose plug-in GLRT method and derive conditions under which the method remains asymptotically optimal. By contrast, the standard CUSUM method, which does not account for the covariance structure, is shown to be asymptotically optimal only in the increasing domain. Our algorithms and accompanying theory are applicable to a wide variety of covariance structures, including the Matern class, the powered exponential class, and others. The plug-in GLRT method is shown to perform well for a number of covariance estimators, including maximum likelihood estimators with a dense or a tapered covariance matrix.

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