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Stochastic volatility models with possible extremal clustering

Abstract

In this paper we consider a heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model, Xt=σtZtX_t=\sigma_tZ_t, tZt\in\mathbb{Z}, where the volatility sequence (σt)(\sigma_t) and the i.i.d. noise sequence (Zt)(Z_t) are assumed independent, (σt)(\sigma_t) is regularly varying with index α>0\alpha>0, and the ZtZ_t's have moments of order larger than α\alpha. In the literature (see Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 664-675, J. Appl. Probab. 38A (2001) 93-104, In Handbook of Financial Time Series (2009) 355-364 Springer), it is typically assumed that (logσt)(\log\sigma_t) is a Gaussian stationary sequence and the ZtZ_t's are regularly varying with some index α\alpha (i.e., (σt)(\sigma_t) has lighter tails than the ZtZ_t's), or that (Zt)(Z_t) is i.i.d. centered Gaussian. In these cases, we see that the sequence (Xt)(X_t) does not exhibit extremal clustering. In contrast to this situation, under the conditions of this paper, both situations are possible; (Xt)(X_t) may or may not have extremal clustering, depending on the clustering behavior of the σ\sigma-sequence.

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