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Limiting distribution for the maximal standardized increment of a random walk

Abstract

Let X1,X2,...X_1,X_2,... be independent identically distributed random variables with EXk=0\mathbb E X_k=0, VarXk=1\mathrm{Var} X_k=1. Suppose that φ(t):=logEetXk<\varphi(t):=\log \mathbb E e^{t X_k}<\infty for all t>σ0t>-\sigma_0 and some σ0>0\sigma_0>0. Let Sk=X1+...+XkS_k=X_1+...+X_k and S0=0S_0=0. We are interested in the limiting distribution of the multiscale scan statistic M_n=\max_{0\leq i <j\leq n} \frac{S_j-S_i}{\sqrt{j-i}}. We prove that for an appropriate normalizing sequence ana_n, the random variable Mn2anM_n^2-a_n converges to the Gumbel extreme-value law exp{ecx}\exp\{-e^{-c x}\}. The behavior of MnM_n depends strongly on the distribution of the XkX_k's. We distinguish between four cases. In the superlogarithmic case we assume that φ(t)<t2/2\varphi(t)<t^2/2 for every t>0t>0. In this case, we show that the main contribution to MnM_n comes from the intervals (i,j)(i,j) having length l:=jil:=j-i of order a(logn)pa(\log n)^{p}, a>0a>0, where p=q/(q2)p=q/(q-2) and q3,4,...q\in{3,4,...} is the order of the first non-vanishing cumulant of X1X_1 (not counting the variance). In the logarithmic case we assume that the function ψ(t):=2φ(t)/t2\psi(t):=2\varphi(t)/t^2 attains its maximum m>1m_*>1 at some unique point t=t(0,)t=t_*\in (0,\infty). In this case, we show that the main contribution to MnM_n comes from the intervals (i,j)(i,j) of length dlogn+alognd_*\log n+a\sqrt{\log n}, aRa\in\mathbb R, where d=1/φ(t)>0d_*=1/\varphi(t_*)>0. In the sublogarithmic case we assume that the tail of XkX_k is heavier than exp{x2ε}\exp\{-x^{2-\varepsilon}\}, for some ε>0\varepsilon>0. In this case, the main contribution to MnM_n comes from the intervals of length o(logn)o(\log n) and in fact, under regularity assumptions, from the intervals of length 11. In the remaining, fourth case, the XkX_k's are Gaussian. This case has been studied earlier in the literature. The main contribution comes from intervals of length alogna\log n, a>0a>0. We argue that our results cover most interesting distributions with light tails.

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