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Rates of contraction for posterior distributions in \boldsLr\bolds{L^r}-metrics, \bolds1r\bolds{1\le r\le\infty}

Abstract

The frequentist behavior of nonparametric Bayes estimates, more specifically, rates of contraction of the posterior distributions to shrinking LrL^r-norm neighborhoods, 1r1\le r\le\infty, of the unknown parameter, are studied. A theorem for nonparametric density estimation is proved under general approximation-theoretic assumptions on the prior. The result is applied to a variety of common examples, including Gaussian process, wavelet series, normal mixture and histogram priors. The rates of contraction are minimax-optimal for 1r21\le r\le2, but deteriorate as rr increases beyond 2. In the case of Gaussian nonparametric regression a Gaussian prior is devised for which the posterior contracts at the optimal rate in all LrL^r-norms, 1r1\le r\le\infty.

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