Rates of contraction for posterior distributions in -metrics,

Abstract
The frequentist behavior of nonparametric Bayes estimates, more specifically, rates of contraction of the posterior distributions to shrinking -norm neighborhoods, , of the unknown parameter, are studied. A theorem for nonparametric density estimation is proved under general approximation-theoretic assumptions on the prior. The result is applied to a variety of common examples, including Gaussian process, wavelet series, normal mixture and histogram priors. The rates of contraction are minimax-optimal for , but deteriorate as increases beyond 2. In the case of Gaussian nonparametric regression a Gaussian prior is devised for which the posterior contracts at the optimal rate in all -norms, .
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