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Model selection for Poisson processes with covariates

23 December 2011
M. Sart
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Abstract

We observe nnn inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. We assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form s(⋅,x)s (\cdot, x)s(⋅,x) where xxx is the covariate and where sss is an unknown function. We propose a model selection approach where the models are used to approximate the multivariate function sss. We show that our estimator satisfies an oracle-type inequality under very weak assumptions both on the intensities and the models. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds and specify them under several kind of assumptions on the target function sss such as being smooth or a product function. Besides, we show that our estimation procedure is robust with respect to these assumptions.

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