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Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces

Abstract

A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution QQ for a random variable XX, in the light of the realized outcome xx of XX; it is proper if the expected score, under any distribution PP for XX, is minimized by quoting Q=PQ=P. Using the fact that any differentiable proper scoring rule on a finite sample space X{\mathcal{X}} is the gradient of a concave homogeneous function, we consider when such a rule can be local in the sense of depending only on the probabilities quoted for points in a nominated neighborhood of xx. Under mild conditions, we characterize such a proper local scoring rule in terms of a collection of homogeneous functions on the cliques of an undirected graph on the space X{\mathcal{X}}. A useful property of such rules is that the quoted distribution QQ need only be known up to a scale factor. Examples of the use of such scoring rules include Besag's pseudo-likelihood and Hyv\"{a}rinen's method of ratio matching.

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