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Proper local scoring rules

Abstract

We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number mm of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such mm-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even mm but no odd mm. We further show that for m2m\geq2 all such mm-local rules can be computed without knowledge of the normalizing constant of the distribution.

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