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Test Martingales, Bayes Factors and ppp-Values

21 December 2009
Glenn Shafer
A. Shen
N. Vereshchagin
V. Vovk
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Abstract

A nonnegative martingale with initial value equal to one measures evidence against a probabilistic hypothesis. The inverse of its value at some stopping time can be interpreted as a Bayes factor. If we exaggerate the evidence by considering the largest value attained so far by such a martingale, the exaggeration will be limited, and there are systematic ways to eliminate it. The inverse of the exaggerated value at some stopping time can be interpreted as a ppp-value. We give a simple characterization of all increasing functions that eliminate the exaggeration.

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