188
21

Profiling of a network behind an infectious disease outbreak

Abstract

I describe a method to estimate a social network topology and diffusion parameters from the time sequence data of an infectious disease outbreak. The method is applicable to a stochastic diffusion process in a meta-population and SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model over a social network. The method is based on the maximal likelihood estimation from the data on the number of the infectious persons. I demonstrate the performance of the method of profiling with the WHO (World Health Organization) report on SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) pandemic in 2003.

View on arXiv
Comments on this paper