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Estimation of the instantaneous volatility

18 December 2008
A. Alvarez
Fabien Panloup
M. Pontier
Nicolas Savy
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Abstract

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: dXt=atdt+σtdWtdX_t=a_tdt+\sigma_tdW_tdXt​=at​dt+σt​dWt​, where XXX denotes the log-price and σ\sigmaσ is a c\`adl\`ag semi-martingale. In the spirit of a series of recent works on the estimation of the cumulated volatility, we here focus on the instantaneous volatility for which we study estimators built as finite differences of the \textit{power variations} of the log-price. We provide central limit theorems with an optimal rate depending on the local behavior of σ\sigmaσ. In particular, these theorems yield some confidence intervals for σt\sigma_tσt​.

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